States implementing restrictions on SNAP spending could face $830 million sales loss by 2026
A recent study by Numerator has revealed that states implementing restrictions on SNAP spending by the end of 2026 could experience a significant sales loss of approximately $830 million in categories targeted by the waivers. This redirection or reduction in spending by SNAP households could lead to specific sales losses, including $430 million for soda, $300 million for candy, and $100 million for energy drinks across 19 states with waivers in place by the end of the year.
Montana has recently submitted a waiver request to implement SNAP restrictions, joining other states seeking similar waivers. The study also indicates that three additional states have received waivers, with two expected to take effect in 2027 and one in 2028, according to the USDA.
As these SNAP waivers are rolled out, grocers in states with restrictions may witness significant shifts in SNAP consumer spending. Numerator highlights that these waivers will structurally change the SNAP program, impacting approximately a third of SNAP participants by the end of the year.
Impact on SNAP households and potential behavior changes
Numerator’s research indicates that SNAP households are aware of the waivers, with a significant portion planning to use non-SNAP dollars to purchase restricted items if necessary. The study found that consumers may opt for healthier alternatives to restricted items, such as tea, juice, or coffee as substitutes for soda and energy drinks, and fruit, ice cream, or fruit snacks as alternatives to candy.
Additionally, the research looked into the impact of the government shutdown on SNAP spending, revealing a 10% decrease in average weekly grocery spending among SNAP households during that period. However, spending stabilized and recovered in the following weeks.
The study, based on a survey of 1,016 SNAP households in late January and purchase data, sheds light on the potential implications of SNAP restrictions and consumer behavior changes in response to these changes.