Key Takeaways:
- Forecast from the USDA’s Economic Research Service suggests a 2.5% increase in food-at-home prices in 2026, remaining below the 20-year average.
- Sugar and sweets, beef and veal, and non-alcoholic beverages are expected to see faster price growth compared to other food-at-home categories, with eggs being the only exception with a predicted price decline.
- Grocery inflation rate eased to 2.1% in January, following a previous rise, according to government reports.
Insights:
USDA’s projections indicate a below-average increase in grocery prices for 2026, compared to the 2.6% average over the past two decades.
The agency anticipates faster price growth for certain food categories, while others will see a slower rate of increase, with egg prices expected to decrease significantly.
Beef and veal prices are predicted to rise by 5.5%, still considerably lower than the high inflation rate recorded in December 2025.
Sugar and sweets, along with non-alcoholic beverages, are forecasted to experience price hikes above the historical average, driven in part by rising coffee prices.
On the other hand, fresh vegetables and fruits are expected to see modest price increases, below their historical averages.
While food-at-home prices are projected to rise slower than average, dining out costs are likely to increase at a faster rate in 2026.