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Thanksgiving Turkey Monopoly at Risk as Demand Declines
A recent report by CoBank suggests that the traditional turkey monopoly on Thanksgiving dinner may be in jeopardy as consumers explore alternative protein options such as beef and pork. The report indicates a long-term decline in turkey demand, leading to a decrease in overall turkey supply by 100 million pounds compared to 2018.
Despite the decrease in supply, turkey inventories have increased by 4% this year, potentially leading to lower prices for consumers. Retail turkey consumption hit a 43-year low last holiday season, attributed to elevated production costs due to bird flu outbreaks and high feed prices.
Changing Consumer Trends
Traditionally, turkey has been the focal point of Thanksgiving meals, but changing consumer preferences and economic factors are challenging its status as the star of the show. Frozen turkey advertisements have decreased by 36% since 2018, indicating a possible plateau in demand for the poultry item.
The decline in turkey prices, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflects shifting consumer behaviors. Many grocers use turkey as a “loss-leader,” offering it at a lower price to encourage additional purchases.
While whole bird turkey sales remain stagnant, ground turkey volumes have seen a 5.5% increase compared to 2023. This shift suggests a changing perception of turkey among consumers, with ground turkey becoming a popular alternative to traditional whole bird preparations.
Industry Outlook
Despite these challenges, turkey producers remain optimistic about the upcoming holiday season. A report by Butterball indicates that a majority of Thanksgiving hosts plan to serve turkey this year, with high consumer participation expected. The average meal attendance is projected to be nine people, showcasing the enduring popularity of Thanksgiving traditions.