A recent health advisory issued by the U.S. Surgeon General has drawn attention to the link between alcohol consumption and cancer, prompting consumers to reconsider their drinking habits. The industry is now preparing for any potential impact that this advisory may have.
Dr. Vivek Murthy, the outgoing U.S. Surgeon General, highlighted the connection between alcohol consumption and cancer on January 3. He emphasized that an individual’s risk of developing cancer due to alcohol consumption is influenced by a combination of biological and environmental factors.
Murthy stated, “Alcohol is a known, preventable cause of cancer, responsible for approximately 100,000 cancer cases and 20,000 cancer-related deaths annually in the United States. This is higher than the 13,500 alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the country each year. Despite this, the majority of Americans are unaware of this risk.”
The Surgeon General highlighted the established correlations between alcohol consumption and various types of cancer, including breast, colorectal, esophagus, liver, mouth, throat, and larynx. He also noted that even consuming one or fewer drinks per day could increase a person’s risk of developing cancer.
In the comprehensive advisory accompanying the Surgeon General’s statements, the Department of Health and Human Services reported that only 45% of Americans recognized the link between cancer and alcohol in 2019.
Following the advisory, the industry acknowledged the health risks associated with alcohol consumption but emphasized the complexity of health outcomes resulting from drinking.
In a statement issued recently, the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States stated that the Surgeon General’s advisory did not consider “broader health outcomes” and referenced studies that only found a link between alcohol and breast cancer.
The council emphasized that it is the federal government’s responsibility to propose any changes to warning statements based on the complete body of scientific research. They reiterated their commitment to complying with all laws and regulations governing labeling.
In a report for investors, TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow suggested that beverage producers should anticipate some backlash from the advisory as some consumers distance themselves from alcohol. He also mentioned that U.S. per capita alcohol consumption may stagnate in the near-to-medium term, advising investors to proceed with caution.
Moskow predicted that proponents of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement, led by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Trump’s nominee for secretary of Health and Human Services, could influence policy in the coming years. This could result in increased scrutiny on alcohol producers and more stringent warning labels on alcohol products.
He also stated that the alcohol lobby is likely to push back against heightened regulatory scrutiny. Beer companies like Molson Coors and AB InBev could be particularly impacted as they have already faced challenges with younger consumers shifting towards ready-to-drink cocktails and cannabis.
The Surgeon General’s advisory coincided with Dry January, a month where many individuals opt to abstain from alcohol. Producers of nonalcoholic adult beverages see the increased focus on the health effects of alcohol as an opportunity to attract consumers, especially Gen Z, who are drinking less than previous generations.